Of course it’s early in the campaign cycle, but let’s get the naysayers out of the way before looking at Romney’s success in the Iowa straw vote — where he garnered nearly 32% of votes:
Romney “bought” the vote.
Rudy, McCain and ole [undeclared] Fred didn’t campaign there.
It’s early in the campaign.
Beginner’s luck.
Straw votes mean nothing.
What do folks in Iowa know about what this country needs?
Look at who finished second and third and fourth ….
And oh yeah, he’s Mormon ….
1. Campaigns have always cost money. Especially the campaign for the Presidency of the United States. Using one of ole Fred’s quips: “If you can’t run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.”
Money PLUS organization (grassroots campaign organizers, chartering buses, and issues win campaigns. Romney had all three.
Note: Huckabee campaign officials deny directly funding bus transportation to Ames, but other groups supporting him did — as did other “non-Romney” voter groups.
2. Not participating in Iowa may come back to haunt those who didn’t campaign in this historic straw vote. Iowa voters were not impressed by the supposed “national” standings. The initial response is that none of the “front runners” wanted to waste their funds on a losing proposition (against Mitt) – opting instead for “Iowa drive by’s” while focusing on the New Hampshire straw vote.
Rudy is attempting a “post” campaign (he’s in Ames TODAY and this week – to “clarify” his message – after the vote), realizing that his stance(s) on critical issues were too “liberal” for the heartland …
Sen. John McCain didn’t campaign in Iowa. He knew better than to rile up conservatives any more than he had already done with his immigration stance … Yet he also will be in Iowa this week.
Even ole Fred — who had neither the money, the organization nor sufficient time to decide to decide whether he was even running — will visit Iowa this week. (Whether or not he’ll be “campaigning” is up to interpretation. Maybe he has suddenly located a long-lost relative he wants to visit and will stop before his greeters to utter a few addages before riding off into the sunset on a leased tractor.)
Mitt Romney knew how critical the Iowa state straw vote would be in his candidacy.
3. Iowa is the first straw vote for the Presidency. Of course it’s “early.” That’s why (before this year, of course), the results have ALWAYS been critical (i.e., relevant, important, significant, news-worthy, etc.) to the winner of the Republican nomination for President.
Team Romney knew this. So did the other candidates. So what changed?
One change of note: This year (as opposed to previous years when ANYONE who bought a ticket could vote), straw poll voters had to have proof of Iowa residency.
Another change of note: Team Romney literally canvassed the Iowa heartland with a campaign they will take nationwide. Which costs money. And especially organization. Which no other Republican candidate had or has. So rather than losing a critical (see above) straw vote — they chose not to campaign.
The result: Iowa became a legitimate “straw” caucus focused on voting-issues and not the ”straw” circus that Rudy’s, John’s, ole Fred’s or even Ron Paul’s minions wanted!
(Reference: note the number of out-of-state licensed vehicles that carried Ron Paul stickers, the voracity of his supporters and his low vote count …. )
4. Beginner’s luck? This is politics. In politics, you “make” your own luck via an organization that garners resources around relevant issues which are succinctly and effectively communicated to the electorate. This is a political campaign. A campaign for the most prestigious office in the world. Regardless of the alibi for not participating — if a candidate does not have the resources (fiscal and personnel AND a command of the issues which address the concerns of the electorate) – you lose.
Mitt Romney, for those who haven’t noticed, is neither a “beginner” nor simply “lucky.” He is a consummate and experienced executive — politically and organizationally. Check his corporate and political resume if you have questions about his credentials.
5. If “straw” votes mean nothing this year, why have they been so significant in the past? If they are no more relevant (as some bloggers suggest) than online polls or newspaper surveys — why have state straw votes previously been described as an indicator of national (or even regional) voter preferences???
… maybe when and if you agree with the results, you’re more likely to accept the “relevance” of the results?
6. What do Iowans know?
They know Mitt Romney.
Iowans have historically taken pride in being the first state to cast their straw votes as indicators of the front-runner(s) in the campaign for the presidency. By location, they are the heartland of our nation and represent the grassroots of America’s philosophy, America’s concerns and America’s future.
They also know that candidates who failed to campaign — for whatever reason (or those such as Brownback who use negative telephone and email tactics) — failed to respect the historical relevance of the Iowa straw vote …. Showing up “after the fact” (such as Rudy is doing this week) will have little impact on the initial insult to their intelligence, either ….
7. Look at who finished second? Third? Fourth? etc.?
Someone had to finish second, third, fourth, etc. Consider regionalism (in lieu of “favorite son” status — call it “favorite cousin” status), as an indicator of Huckabee’s finish. Nothing wrong with the guy. He supposedly campaigned very little in Iowa. Didn’t need to. The former Arkansas Governor didn’t need to remind folks of his heritage or philosophy.
It also appears that Brownback’s campaign of negative phone calls and emails had minimal effect against Romney or for his campaign.
The issue should be “look at who finished first!” A former conservative governor of one of the most liberal states in the nation won a straw poll in a moderate-to-highly conservative state located in the heartland of this nation!
8. And, oh, yeah — he’s Mormon ….
So?
A group of allegedly Evangelical Christians attempted to distract Iowa voters with this “reality” yesterday. Didn’t work then. Won’t work in November.
Nor did Brownback’s negative run of phone calls and emails.
Americans recognize (in spite of detractors) that Mitt Romney is not a candidate for pastor-in-chief. He’s a candidate for the President of the United States.
Iowa knows the difference. That’s why they overwhelmingly chose Mitt Romney in their straw vote yesterday.
Available updates will be added under comments.